2021 投資反省
2021年虧損50%(2020年大概+25%)，主要虧損原因為重壓TPGY/STEM/OPEN，這三支小型股，而小型股在2021年動能明顯不佳。
首先TPGY是一間SPAC，併購一家充電站提供商EV box，然後2021年底宣布終止併購。我在2021年1月底分批買進100多股(進價$23-$25)，在五月想通了商業模式在美國不太可行且公司面消息太少，發信去跟公司IR聯絡也沒得到回覆，當時覺得不對勁趕緊全部出場，當時候已經虧損40%左右了(出的價格在$13-$16)，目前為$9.X。算學到了一課，我在2020 SPAC上市的這波公司的投資幾乎都是往南走，包括STEM、AEVA、KPLT、GIK、FIII、CHPT都是虧損的(大部分跟電動車有關)，在STEM我還是認為是一間好公司，但財報後市場不買帳，所以我跟著出場了，AEVA是我現在還持有的汽車光達(LiDAR)股，基於它上是給出的財務預測與法說會上提到的簽了一個全球市佔很大的車廠(但還在保密協議)，可笑的是我推給公司的幾乎都賺了，且大都為大型科技股，而我自己都買小型股，想利用小型股的高波動來放大報酬，而目前績效來看挺差的，所以總結一下我犯的錯誤 :
1. deposition bias (處置錯誤)，人性傾向把賺錢的倉位了結，虧損的部位保留，而我在今年做了一對這種蠢事，散戶俗稱凹單。
2.Overconfidencce，在這個case我做了很多research，包括蒐集公司在歐洲的營運方資料與新聞，我相信自己做的DD，也勤於觀察公司公告與推特，但後來才意識到不對勁，在美國拓展的新聞乏善可陳，也沒有找傳統/電動車廠/加油站合作、IR不回信、推特沒經營。
3.Gambler’s fallacy(賭徒謬誤)，類似均值回歸，在小型股被整體市場看空時而導致部位虧損時，我認為動能終究還是會回到優性的小型成長股，但事實上為整年都沒有回來。
而OPEN我正在撰文中，是我目前最大倉位也是最大虧損倉位，但我認為這模型很有趣，3Q21財報也擊敗買方預期漲了10%，但因為動能因素在那之後持續下跌，基金經理人們在接近升息循環而做出的防禦性布置之一也包括出售小型股，而我目前凹單中，還是相信$OPEN的商業模式與它的技術相對競爭對手好。
整體而言還是蠻開心有從市場學習到東西，雖然虧錢了，但我相信去年這樣下來對我未來的選股與盤感培養是有益的。
2021/7/14有對自己的投資組合做recap，剛好有留下來，我認為這應該是每個月都要做的事，但我後來太忙而沒追蹤每支個股，而導致有些部位錯過賣出時機。
Investment thesis Recap
2021/07/14 portfolio holding : AEVA(9%), BA(14%), F(3%), GM(21.1%), HIMS(3%), INSG(4.6%), KPLT(3.45%), OPEN(4.86%), QRVO(9.96%), SWKS(13.7%), TAN(9.15%), XLF(3.8%).
AEVA : LiDAR, 1Q21 concall mentioned a leading ODMs auto makers have a contract agreement with them, also TSP is oen of their customers, although valuation is high now, in terms of 21 sales. I think this names needs 2–3 yrs to play out my thesis.
BA : Reopening of whole world, although stock have been reflected since Oct. 2020 but it didn’t go back to all time high, and this kinds of company have government support, so this is clearly a defensive stock that I will hled it ‘till $400.
GM : I believe they are building a complete EV ecosystem, they got LiDAR, Cruise, Fuel Cell tech and battery plant with LG and the most important, they have brand name and been long planted-in Us consumers’ mind.
F : Fear to missing out, don’t know much about their EV plan, but I like their Eletric EV pick-up, the American favorite car. Both GM and F are cheap in terms of EV/Sales versus TSLA. Furthermore, Ford is developing different types of EV model from Tesla.
QRVO, SWKS : I believe OVX ODMs in China will keep gaining shares, but I put higher position on SWKS due to this year AAPL will gain significant share, espically in China due to lack of competitors this year.
7/28 AAPL mentioned there will be supply constraint in 3Q primarily on iPhone and iPad (prior : iPad and Mac) => reduce SWKS exposure.
INSG : Expect their 2Q21 to be the lowest quarter in terms of Rev. and they leave SA Ctrack business. Expect their enterprise business to bring up their revenue and GM, and beat Rev. and EPS expectation to get the chance to re-rating.
KPLT(Katapult) : A SPAC focus on Buy now pay later(BNPL) focus on those have lower credit consumers, backed by PIPE Tigher Globla management. The biggest customers is Wayfair (Home appliances E-commerce), SHOP, BIGC also their customers. EV/Sales is lower than peers APT and AFRM.
Market want to escape VISA/M due to their relatively higher charge.
Catalyst : beat consesus on Rev. growth and M&A opportunity.
Gamma pick.
TAN : Solar ETF, top holdings are SEDG and ENPH.
Catalyst : Energy storage ITC, NEM 3.0 overhang solved, solar secular trend and battery storage demand.
XLF : Big Cap banks ETF, usually followed treasury yield and nowdays treasury yield only 1.3x%, expect it increase to above 1.8% in this year.
OPEN :penetration rate in home buying market still lower than 2% and they have leading position on ibuyer market.
TAM is big and now in early stage.
