AAPL 2QFY20 (Mar, 2020) earning conference
Key takeaway：
- There are no guidance in next quarter, but Apple increased $50B of shares buyback plan and increase 6% dividends payout to show that might not have big drop of stock price for this year(2020).
- There won’t have any new products in June quarter, and Iphone SE and new Ipad Pro, magical keyboard are released in March quarter. And everyone in the market is doubting whether 5G-deployed Iphone 12 gonna be delayed or not.
- GM in June quarter will increase, due to NAND, DRAM and display are remained at historically low price and COGS will slightly decrease.
No guidance for next quarter
3QFY20(Jun 2020) Guidance: Contrary to previous practice (where AAPL provides guidance (including rev range and GM range) for the current quarter, for 3QFY20 (Jun 2020), AAPL has given no financial guidance. Apple gave qualitative guidance about (1) YoY growth of iPhone and wearable in Jun quarter relative to Mar quarter would be worsen and (2) the trends affecting Service revenues (a) Digital services (App Store, Video, Music and cloud) will continue “double digit growth” (b) AppleCare and Advertising have been impacted by store closure and overall slower economic activities.
2QFY20 (Mar, 2020) segment performance
總營收 $58.3B，較去年成長+1% y/y，產品45B, -3% y/y，除了COVID19還有美元升值的影響。
服務收入$13.3B，+17% y/y set a all time high. 訂閱服務在Apple store有雙位數年成長
Iphone 銷售$29B, -7% y/y, 供需均下降，供給面因2月中國疫情導致 供給不足，第一季的後兩個月因中國疫情爆發需求下降到營業點關閉都是造成Iphone銷售下降的主因。
穿戴式裝備 $6.3B, +23%y/y, 因apple watch的市場再擴大，第一季銷售的apple watch中有>75%的人是新用戶。
Mac/Ipad rev $5.4B/$4.4B，而三月底公司發布新ipad pro 跟macbook air
Other financial performance
GM被美元升值影響-1.3% y/y, -0.7% q/q，而因服務收入GM較高，所以第一季的GM也因此受益。
2QFY20公司執行了18.5B share buyback and 3.4B dividends
股票買回計畫資金經董事會同意又增$50B USD，原本還有~40B；6% increase in quaterly dividend payout
2Q新產品 iPad Pro, iphone SE, MacBook Air, Magic Keyboard
Apple card 在三四月不用利息
Key QA in conference call
Q1 Shannon Cross問起四月的營收改善，細講在部門與geo~基礎下的表現
A1 中國四月相較於三月有改善，而除了中國外，2QFY20前段營收表現都還不錯，然而當開始shelter-in-place and WFH，3月公司看到需求極大的下降。四月則是新產品方面帶起的需求，而公司認為Mac跟ipad的營收會有年增，WFH後，大家對平板與筆電的使用率提高了。
Q2 cost saving 與OPEX上的細節
A2 SG&A manage tight, and new investment about baseband from Intel, so they need to balance it.
Q3 Wamsi Mohan: 未來幾季產品計畫
A3 第二季不會有新產品
Q4 apple card 的利息免繳與iphone的分期付款計畫，公司對BS的運用有甚麼打算
A4 並沒有要動用到balance sheet，apple card與店家合作的商業模式將會展現，其實就是deferred payments 不會是apple 來認列。
Q5 Katy Huberty: 營收上會不會有結構性的改變，帶來新的收入成長；另外健康與AR部分預期狀況如何
A5 WFH使apple store的產品變得熱門，且隨著WFH時間增長，大家會議室到這些東西可以幫助到他們，預期會較第一季加速。健康方面公司有再做打算(除了apple watch對醫護人員的幫助)
Q6 M&A的積極度會不會改變與/50B share buyback
A6 不會，依然會積極布局使產品的量產加速，不論是硬體軟體還是服務方面都會是選擇之一。
Q7 Amit Daryanani : 存貨在三月的狀況以及6月的預期
A7 在2QFY20存貨較去年水平低，但過往來說這也有季節性因素的影響，童常在下半年增加存貨，所以公司對存貨水平式在掌控內。 ->不會有供給問題
Q8 Jeriel Ong 服務收入的需求強勁，會不會持續整年
A8 App Store, Video, Music, and cloud services將會與第一季依樣的雙位數訂閱成長，但applecare 與廣告收入將會是headwind.
Q9 截至目前為止有看到消費者因經濟因素或失業上升而轉移產品傾好
A9 iphone SE需求強勁價格低廉，ipad pro也是
Q10 Samik Chatterjee 中國的營運恢復，有多少是因線上銷售而影響以及公司看法
A10 主要線上銷售只是因在中國實體店關閉的那三個禮拜而轉移，公司不會把它看作長期的改變，而現在重新開店，四月的店內流動人數已較三月好但還是沒有lockdown之前好。
Q11 iphone SE在全球市場的銷售組成，以及需求主要來自哪個地區，相對於其他還在市面上的iphone
A11 中等收入國家目前較少，公司認為可以更好，並很期待價格低廉的iphone會讓大家從安卓轉去IOS
Q12 iphone SE的價格對未來iphone的訂價影響 如果是為了擴大潛在市場，那對GM會有何影響?
A12 無正面回答
Q13 公司過去預期某些產品零組件的價格在三月下降 未來呢? 對這個新環境，2H GM會有甚麼影響
A13 NAND 價格微幅上漲 DRAM and display價格下降 公司預期June quarter NAND跟DRAM的價格
會在停留在當今的歷史低價，display跟其他產品價格預期會下降。-> GM在2QFY20會上升基於COGS的下降。
Source : 2QFY20 (Mar 2020) Apple’s earning conference transcript
Catalysts of AAPL in 2020
(1) share buyback remain $90B USD, almost 8–9% of market capital.
(2) dividends payouts increase 6% show out the company structure is really healthy now in the tough time.
(3) Iphone SE opened up their TAM of smartphone and they expect there gonna show the sign of Android switched to ios and make their target customers range broader.
(4) Iphone12 release in 3QCY20 bring half of total revenue.
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- new Ipad pro + keyboard is created for compete with Surface from MSFT.
- Tesla’s goal of 0.5M shipments in CY20 is bullshit, we knew 1QCY20 0.13M shipments and there gonna show downturn sequentially in 2QCY20, due to factories shutdown in the US and US is still the major manufacturing place. Even the productivity double in Shanghai, it still hard to reach the target they set. Stock price now is almost $900 and we know market is crazy.
- 5/1 is a labor day in Taiwan, however, I was in office all day long to figure the earning conference Apple just released on 5/1, Taiwan’s time zone. LIFE SUCKS.
