Forex — Commitments of Traders Reports 4/12/2022
the data is about the April, 12 position, but it released on April, 15. So there is time lag, namely that, it could fully reflect the real market position of commercial and non-commercial position. Especially, we just got bank of Canada and Euro Central bank held interest rate meeting on April 13 and 14.
From the aboved table, we can see CAD, EUR, and AUD have a net positive position adds relative to USD. Which means market on April 12 might get ready to the two events held by Bank of Canada and ECB. And back at that time, I was doing the same thing on virtual trading platform, I expect Bank of Canada will combat inflation with a rate hike, and it turns out to raise 50bps, which cause CADUSD continue to go up since April 13. However, ECB reamin their quantitaive tightening pace. And ECB also indicate they will stop APP at the 3Q, which means QE will be officially stop. Moreover, the rate reamin at -0.5% and committee still expect not to be too hawkish due to Ukraine and Russia war, which means their concern to Ukraine and Russia war may cause economic recession weighted over the concern to infaltion hike.
Net postiion of EUR is reducing again, and getting close to last ten weeks average position. So, market in general still heddging EUR or thought EUR will depreciate. I’ve close my position on EUR last week.
I don’t have any idea on GBP, still trying to know how the mechenism and chemistry in GBP movement. Right now, looks like the net position change of GBP is all time low (-124003) YTD. This indicate market doesn;t favor GBP back at April ,12.
Net position change of GBP the highest YTD. This indicates market are optimistic about the interest rate decision of bank of Canada, namely that maret expect Bank of Canada will be more hawkish and raise interest rate or market expect oil price continue to increase, which make Canada benifit from exporting oil to the United Sates.
JPY net position change is the lowest YTD. Market still thought JPY is going to depreciate due to their monetary policy and official announcement that they will keep their interest rate low to boost economy, at the same time they’re worrying inflation rate due to energy price and materials price increase.
AUD is changing, I think is because market saw China lockdown and Zero COVID policy is eased a little bit, Shanghai residents get differentiated policy, some of citizens there are eligible to go out (sounds like they’re in jail…) As the Zero COVID policy eased, I think the demand to metals or home contruction materials will increase, which benefit Australia export.
So, in the next two to three months, I think it’s safe to put money in AUD.
Disclosure : The content of this article comes from sources approved by the author, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. The various business, financial and other related archives and all opinions and estimates mentioned in the content of the article are based on the judgment made by the author on a specific date, so there is a time limit. If there is any change in the future, the author will not make any changes, advance notice or update. The content of this article is for reference only and does not provide or persuade customers to buy or sell stocks as an investment basis. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risks and be responsible for their own investment results.
