Investment thesis — Tesla
https://waldopinion.substack.com/p/investment-thesis-of-tesla
$TSLA Investment thesis& metrics
Tesla Robotaxi
Tesla Insurance
Tesla FSD
Financial model (three statements)
$TSLA Investment thesis& metrics
1) Expect the Revenue of Tesla in FY22 and FY23 to be higher than the FY22/23 consensus. (Waldo Est. vs Consensus from Tikr Terminal )
2) Expect gross margin improvement, driven by Auto production weighted on the higher profit models (Model 3/Y), operating efficiency improvement, and Tesla Insurance.
3) Robotaxi and Tesla Insurance will be one of Tesla’s high-profit revenue streams (Insurance revenue included in “Service and other revenue” segment).
Tesla Robotaxi
Expect Robotaxi will be launched in 2025 in the U.S., at that time cabs in America will be around 350k. And business will expand to the globe as Tesla cover most of the states in America. Elon Musk mentioned that he expects robotaxi to be cheaper than public transportation. When 2030 I expect Robotaxi business to be a $25.5bn business.
Revenue of Robotaxi per year will be (Estimated Robotaxis on road)*(ASP per mile)*(miles per day)*(operating days per year).
Assumption: Gross Margin of Robotaxi is 50%, then the Price/Mile will be $0.97~$1.05.
Tesla Insurance
Tesla launched Tesla Insurance in 4Q2021 and expects to cover 80% of the states in America in 2022 and expand to Europe. Assumes Attach rate to be in increasing order since 2021 and Insurance fee per vehicle per year to be $2030. I am quite conservative here, Tesla will announce more detail as their coverage of states increases, so I will update this model when they released more information.
Tesla FSD
Expect Tesla drivers will adopt FSD as regulation and FSD technology become more thorough. Assumes attach rate will accelerate beginning from 2025. Assumes the FSD subscription fee per month to be $99.
Financial model (three statements)
Now Tesla trade at 21.8x 2025 EV/EBITDA (Non-GAAP) or 29.9x 2025 P/E (Non-GAAP)
I believe Tesla’s Auto sales, FSD sales, and the insurance business will drive the stock price of Tesla up. And what really important are the execution capability and DTC model used by Tesla compared with other tranditional ICE companies, brand recognition, and the possibility that Elon to expand to new business.
Disclaimer :
The content of this article comes from sources approved by the author, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. The various business, financial, and other related archives and all opinions and estimates mentioned in the content of the article are based on the judgment made by the author on a specific date, so there is a time limit. If there is any change in the future, the author will not make any changes, advance notice, or update. The content of this article is for reference only and does not provide or persuade customers to buy or sell stocks on an investment basis. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risks and be responsible for their own investment results.
