Opendoor investment thesis
Short term :
- 2022 housing market inventory is still hostorically low.
2. 30-year fixed rate Mortgage average in the united states is still in histoically low level. Because tension in Ukraine have stalled the rapid grwoth in Mortgage.
3. Home prices surge to record high & Case Shiller &FHFA房價指數仍在上漲(落後指標)
Long term :
1. Opendoor keep acquiring companies that can help on ancillary services to increase CM from 4–6% to 6–8%, management said in 4Q21 concall.
2.transaction of real estate still only have less than 2% transacted online, ibuyer penetration rate is still low, and opendoor’s competitor is not other ibuyer like offerpad, but the tranditional one.
3.As opendoor scales up, there will have network effect to bring in organic traffic to save more marketing expense to increase CM.
Short term risk :
*home demand decline significantly and HPA decline correspondingly, to make CM lower than 4%.
*tranditional realtor develop ibuyer model or acquire offerpad etc.
*listed homes have been in the market for more than 120 days is higher than market average, but 4Q21 concall mgt said they only got 8%, and market average 24%.
