SWKS - preview before 2QFY20 conference call
Summary:
2QFY20(Mar 2020) results have already been released, the attention is now entirely on 3QFY20 (Jun 2020) guidance. I recommended short selling of SWKS for the following two reasons, 1) Mexcali plant lockdown will likely continue through the entire 3QFY20 (Jun 2020), (2) TrendForce on Apr 30, 2020 released its 2Q2020 “global Smartphone Production to Drop by 16.5% YoY in 2Q20, Setting Historical Record in YoY Decline.”
What you should know：
*2QFY2020 (Mar 2020) 的營收跟EPS in-line with 3/4 的revised outlook (根據4/13的pressrelease)
*墨西哥屬測試與封裝的部門，但因COVID19，該部門關閉至4/30，而wiki數據顯示工廠所處的Baja California確診人數在近幾天呈下降趨勢，但新聞表示該地的確診人數在上升且人工呼吸器不足，導致患者在等待呼吸器的過程中死亡，而我會比較相信文中醫護人員表示政府再隱瞞確診人數，因為所以我認為美東4/30也就是明天還是會持續lockdown影響，當地政府恐會延續Lockdown，導致SWKS的產品出貨受影響。
*COVID19感染案例持續上升，墨西哥每日確診人數也還在高點，預計政府會延長封城到期法令。
*全球手機銷售下降3成(據QCOM EC表示/ AAPL也證明首季需求疲軟，5成營收來自AAPL，所以隨著AAPL的銷售會影響整年表現，首先能預期今年手機銷售會因消費者支出下降而需求降低，iphone12又有晚一個月上市的消息(10月)，那今年的營收甚至可能下降)
﹡(公司3/4 Preannounced 2Q FY20(Mar 2020) outlook，原本Rev rg $800–820M，改成$760M~$770M)
*Non-GAAP EPS 2QFY20 原本$1.46，改成$1.34. On 4/14, SWKS announced in a press release its 2QFY20(Mar 2020) results with Rev at US$766.1m and EPS “in line” with Mar/4 announcement (nonGAAP EPS of $1.34.)
Trendforce predicts 2Q20 Smartphone production units gonna down 16.5% y/y.
COVID19 cases and situation in Mexico
Uptodated news in Mexico 4/30
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.
